Physician Workforce Data Suggest Epochal Change

There is a recognized and growing need for additional surgeons in the US, but recent physician workforce data reveal the surgical workforce is not trending in a positive direction. The April issue of the Bulletin of the American College of Surgeons examines the 2023 US Physician Workforce Data Dashboard from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) to see what the numbers are saying.

The 2024 numbers suggest that the US will experience a shortfall of 10,000 to 19,900 surgeons by 2036, against an overall physician shortfall of 13,500 to 86,000—in other words, a lack of surgeons may constitute as much as 74% of the total. Has surgeon workforce growth, per the new dashboard, kept up with projected demand?

According to the article, “The news is not encouraging. Per the AAMC data, the number of surgeons in a range of surgical specialties grew by an average of 3.0% between late 2018 and late 2022, while physicians in all medical specialties (surgical and nonsurgical) grew by 5.4% in the same period. This suggests that surgeons are experiencing larger-than-average shortfalls at present.”

The article provides several useful tables and charts to visualize this information, in addition to a close look at the potential maldistribution of surgeons in urban versus rural settings across states, how the advancing age of current surgeons is affecting the future workforce, and more.

Read the full article, and read other articles in the April Bulletin.