Original Scientific Article

The Longitudinal Study of Surgical Residents, 1994 to 1996

Francis Kwakwa, MA, Olga Jonasson, MD, FACS

Background: The American College of Surgeons (ACS) has conducted a detailed annual survey of residents enrolled in surgical graduate medical education (GME) programs since 1982 and has regularly published the resulting data as the Longitudinal Study of Surgical Residents. This report documents surgical resident enrollment and graduation for the academic years 1994-95 and 1995-96.

Study Design: The Medical Education Research and Information Database of the American Medical Association was supplemented by the existing ACS Resident Masterfile and by personal contact with program directors and their staffs to verify accuracy and completeness of reporting. Each resident was tracked individually through surgical GME.

Results: The total number of surgical residents graduating from surgical GME in 1995 and 1996 has not changed since 1982. Most graduates of surgical residency programs are in obstetrics and gynecology, followed by general surgery; demographic analysis of the graduating cohort shows that most are Caucasian male graduates of US or Canadian medical schools, and that their age at graduation is 33 to 35 years. International medical graduates (IMG) make up 8.9% of entering surgical residents and 6% of graduates. Osteopathic medical school graduates account for 1.2% to 1.3% of entering and graduating surgical residents.

Women represent 27% of entering and 23% to 24% of graduates of surgical GME. The largest number and proportion of women in surgical GME are enrolled in obstetrics and gynecology residency programs, where they make up the majority of entering and graduating classes. When all other surgical residency program enrollments are considered together, women make up 17% and 16% of entering residents in 1994 and 1995, respectively, and 13% and 14% of graduates in those years.

Conclusions: Surgical GME enrollment and graduation is stable. Few women and ethnic minorities are enrolled in surgical residency programs. IMG enrollment and graduation in surgical GME is low. (J Am Coll Surg 1999;188:575-585. © 1999 by the American College of Surgeons)

References

 


The American College of Surgeons (ACS) has conducted a detailed annual survey of surgical residents in all specialties, beginning with the 1982-1983 academic year.1 Data have been reported in independent publications and, most recently, in a scientific report published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons in 1996.2 The data have been used to show trends in the total enrollment and graduates of the 12 surgical specialties during this 15-year time frame, and have been important information for health care planners addressing workforce issues.

Since 1994 the ACS has cooperated with the Medical Education Research and Information Database of the American Medical Association to obtain information on each surgical resident enrolled in graduate medical education (GME). Before this collaboration, the ACS conducted its independent survey of program directors, specialty societies, and certifying boards, achieving between 97.8% and 100% reporting frequency. The reporting frequency since 1994 has been 100%. This report presents the data of surgical residents from the years 1994-95 and 1995-96, and documents trends in total numbers and demographics of surgical residents in the 8 core surgical specialties (specialties offering primary certification by an American Board of Medical Specialty member board: general surgery, neurological surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, ophthalmology, orthopaedic surgery, otolaryngology, plastic surgery, urology), and in the advanced general surgery-based specialties of colon and rectal surgery, pediatric surgery, surgical critical care, thoracic surgery, and vascular surgery.

METHODS

Data sources

The American Medical Association (AMA) Medical Education Research and Information Database was the main source of data for this study.3 This database is fed and updated by the AMA's annual Graduate Medical Education survey sent to all Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) accredited residency programs for information on each program and each resident. Since 1994, the ACS has collaborated with the AMA on the resident-specific portion of the GME survey. The AMA agreed to provide the ACS with resident data in return for ACS efforts to increase the response rate of all surgical programs. By telephone, mail-in, or fax-in surveys, AMA resident files for the 1994-95 and 1995-96 academic years were updated by the ACS to include data from all programs that did not respond to the original AMA surveys.

The postgraduate year (PGY) status of a resident in the AMA files was frequently verified with information from the ACS Resident Masterfile, which contains tracking data about individual residents from 1982 to the present. Created from a combination of annual surveys of ACGME-accredited surgical programs and data obtained from specialty boards, the Surgical Resident Masterfile represents the most comprehensive and complete source of surgical resident data in the United States.

Selecting surgical residents beginning a residency program

For 1994-95 and 1995-96, surgical residents were considered beginners in a residency program in general surgery, orthopaedic surgery, otolaryngology, urology, and neurological surgery if they were not identified in any surgical program in preceding years. Residents who were identified in a specialty program after one or more years in general surgery were arbitrarily assigned to the specialty. For example, a resident was considered to have begun a residency program in neurological surgery in the 1994-95 academic year if he or she was a resident in general surgery in 1994-95 and continued in neurological surgery in 1995-96. Because of this redistribution of designated preliminary residents into their respective postpreliminary specialties, the remaining residents in general surgery are either categorical general surgery residents or undesignated preliminary residents.

Residents in plastic surgery and ophthalmology have a variety of prerequisite GME options, and there is no GME prerequisite for residents entering obstetrics and gynecology. Hence, residents entering programs in these specialties were considered beginners in a particular academic year if they were not identified in any program in those specialties in the preceding years.

Selecting the 1995 and 1996 graduates

We included all residents graduating within a calendar year in the cohort of graduates of that year.

Analysis

Corrected data in the AMA 1994-95 and 1995-96 resident files were analyzed to derive counts of 1995 and 1996 graduates in the 8 core and 5 advanced surgical residencies. Counts of beginning and graduating residents in the core and advanced surgical residencies were also obtained. Data were analyzed by gender, ethnic background, citizenship status, age, and the type of medical school attended.

Chi-square tests of independence were used for comparing proportions; t-tests were used for continuous measures. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL) was used for all computations.

RESULTS

Graduates of 1994-1995 and 1995-1996 residency programs in surgery

In 1995, 4,228 residents graduated from the core surgical specialties; in 1996 this number was 4,154. An additional 359 and 369 residents completed residency programs in the advanced general surgery-based specialties in 1995 and 1996, respectively, for a total of 4,587 graduates in 1995 and 4,523 in 1996 (Table 1). These numbers are essentially unchanged from those reported in prior years, varying from the 15 -year average by less than 1% each year (Fig. 1). In 1995 and 1996 the largest number of graduates of core surgical programs, 1,188 (28%) and 1,194 (29%), respectively, were in the specialty of obstetrics and gynecology; 1,011 (24%) and 998 (24%) of the graduates were in general surgery. Although it appears that there has been an increase in graduates in thoracic surgery (138 in 1995 and 148 in 1996), this represents residents in programs admitting 2 residents in one year and 1 the next. With the exception of neurological surgery, which had 131 graduates in 1995 and 143 in 1996, core and advanced programs graduates remained the same or decreased slightly (Table 2).

Table 1. Graduates of Surgical Residencies, 1995 and 1996


  1995 Graduates 1996 Graduates
 

Residencies n % n %

Core Surgical* 
   General surgery  1,011 23.9 998 24.0
   Obstetrics and
   gynecology 
1,188 28.1 1,194 28.7
   Orthopaedic surgery† 635 15.0 607 14.6
   Ophthalmology† 506 12.0 484 11.6
   Otolaryngology† 282 6.7 273 6.6
   Urology‡ 256 6.1 249 6.0
   Plastic surgery§ 219 5.2 206 5.0
   Neurological surgery† 131 3.1 143 3.4
Subtotal 4,228 100 4,154 100
Advanced Surgical||        
   Thoracic surgery  138 38.3 148 40.1
   Vascular surgery  79 21.9 76 20.6
   Colon and rectal surgery  54 15.0 54 14.6
   Surgical critical care¶ 62 17.2 65 17.6
   Pediatric surgery  26 7.2 26 7.0
Subtotal  359 100 369 100
Total  4,587   4,523  

* Core Surgical Specialties offer primary certification by an American Board of Medical Specialties board.
† One prerequisite year of graduate medical education is required before entering specialty.
‡ Two years of prerequisite general surgery residency is required before entering urology.
§ A minimum of three prerequisite years of general surgery or completion of an otolaryngology residency is required before entering plastic surgery.
|| Successful completion of a general surgery residency is required before entering these surgical specialties.
¶ Three or more years of general surgery residency are required before entering a residency program in surgical critical care; completion of a general surgery residency is required to be eligible for certification in surgical critical care.

From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Graduates from core surgical residency programs, 1987 to 1996. The total number of graduates each year varies from the 15-year average by less than 1%. Core surgical residency programs offering primary certification by an American Board of Medical Specialties member board include general surgery, neurological surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, ophthalmology, orthopaedic surgery, otolaryngology, plastic surgery, and urology. (From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1995-1996 American Medical Association, Chicago, IL with permission.)

Table 2. Graduates of Surgical Residencies, 1983 to 1996


Specialty 1983  1985  1987  1989  1991  1993  1994  1995  1996 

General surgery  996 1,024 1,023 994 995 979 1,001 1,011 998
Obstetrics and gynecology NA NA 1,175 1,104 1,133 1,175 1,177 1,188 1,194
Orthopaedic surgery 613 639 620 598 653 630 655 635 607
Ophthalmology NA NA 512 504 461 465 507 507 484
Otolaryngology 252 223 257 259 268 271 273 282 273
Urology  264 260 254 237 254 247 252 256 249
Neurological surgery 90 127 118 129 110 127 126 131 143
Plastic surgery 186 205 187 191 204 212 209 219 206
Thoracic surgery 139 141 135 132 133 144 147 138 148
Colon and rectal surgery 50 46 48 49 58 53 54 54 54
Vascular surgery 0* 10 61 69 74 72 78 79 76
Pediatric surgery  17 17 17 17 22 21 21 26 26
Total  2,607 2,692 4,407 4,283 4,365 4,396 4,500 4,587 4,521

* Vascular surgery first accredited in 1984.
NA, not available until 1987.

From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

By the beginning of the 1997-98 academic year, 446 (44%) of the 1995 general surgery graduates have continued in advanced general surgery-based accredited GME (Table 3). In addition, graduates entered formal specialty fellowship programs in transplantation and surgical oncology that are not accredited through the ACGME system, leaving fewer than half of the graduates of general surgery residency programs who enter broad-based general surgery practice. Although numbers of 1996 general surgery graduates continuing in advanced programs appear lower, we have found that some residents enter advanced programs one to two years after graduation from the core general surgery program; we anticipate that the number of 1996 general surgery graduates who eventually enter accredited advanced surgical residency programs will be the same as in prior years. One hundred thirty of the 1995 general surgery graduates entered plastic surgery in 1995, 1996, or 1997; the number of 1996 general surgery graduates entering plastic surgery in 1996 and 1997 was 87, although followup of this group has been insufficient to detect some of the graduates who begin plastic surgery programs after a hiatus of one to two years.

Table 3. General Surgery Graduates Continuing in Accredited General Surgery Based Residency Programs


Specialty 1995 general surgery graduates*   1996 general surgery graduates†  

Colon and rectal surgery 50 38
Plastic surgery  130 87
Surgical critical care  39 47
Pediatric surgery  24 21
Vascular surgery  74 74
Thoracic surgery  129 116
Total  446 383


* 1995 general surgery graduates identified in 1995/96, 1996/97, or 1997/98 advanced residency programs.
† 1996 general surgery graduates identified in 1996/97 or 1997/98 advanced residency programs.

From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

Graduates of core surgical residency programs were 33 years old on average; graduates of the advanced general surgery-based programs were, as expected, at least 2 years older (35 to 36 years old) (Table 4). Women were slightly, though significantly, younger than men. IMG graduates were older than US and Canadian graduates when graduating either from core programs (36.5 years versus 33 years) or from advanced programs (38 years versus 35 years). Osteopathic graduates of core programs were, on average, 1.8 years older than allopathic graduates from US and Canadian medical schools.

Table 4. Average Age of 1995 and 1996 Graduates of Surgical Residencies*

 


  1995 graduates† 1996 graduates†
 

Specialties Age (y) n Age (y) n

Core Surgical‡
   All core specialties  33.0 + 3.1 4,062 33.1 + 3.7 4,127
   Men  33.1 + 3.0 3,087 33.2 + 3.4 3,056
   Women  32.7 + 3.5 || 975 32.8 + 4.3 || 1.071
   Graduates of US/Canadian    allopathic medical schools  32.8 + 2.9 3,806 32.9 + 3.4 3,808
   Graduates of international
   medical schools 
36.5 + 4.4 205 36.7 + 4.7 261
   Graduates of osteopathic
   medical schools 
34.1 + 3.2 51 34.8 + 4.3 58
Advanced surgical§         
   All advanced specialties  35.4 + 3.2 306 36.0 + 5.8 358
   Men  35.4 + 3.2 277 36.0 + 5.9 329
   Women  34.8 + 3.1 29 35.3 + 4.5 29
   Graduates of US/Canadian
   allopathic medical schools 
35.1 + 2.8 272 35.7 + 5.9 325
   Graduates of international
   medical schools 
37.7 + 4.7 34 38.2 + 3.7 32
   Graduates of osteopathic
   medical schools 
0 0 33.0 + 4.3 1


*Ages are reported as mean plus or minus one standard deviation.
† Data were missing for 4.8% of the 1995 graduates and 0.8% of the 1996 graduates.
‡ Core surgical specialties offer primary certification by an American Board of Medical Specialties board.
§ Successful completion of a general surgery residency is required before entering these surgical specialties.
|| Women are significantly younger than men at graduation from a surgical residency (p <.005).

From the American College Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

Residents entering surgical GME in 1994 and 1995

Twice as many residents enter general surgery as graduate, reflecting the preliminary category of residency appointments in general surgery (Table 5). "Designated" preliminary residents (those fulfilling a prerequisite general surgery experience for 1 or 2 years before beginning specialty GME) have been identified by longitudinal followup of the 1994 and 1995 entry cohort, and have been arbitrarily assigned to their specialty at the postgraduate year (PGY) 1 level for the purposes of this study. The excess of general surgery residents, therefore, represent the "undesignated" preliminary cohort. In contrast, the number entering the other core surgical specialties closely resembles the number of graduates, as is typical of categorical resident positions. Approximately 5,000 individuals enter a surgical residency program each year.

Table 5. Specialty of Surgical Residents Beginning a Residency Program, 1994-1995 and 1995-1996


  Residents
 
  1994-1995 1995-1996
 

Core surgical residencies* n % n %

General surgery 2,094 40.5 1,927 38.3
Obstetrics and gynecology  1,220 23.6 1,211 24.1
Orthopaedic surgery† 553 10.7 583 11.6
Ophthalmology† 475 9.2 467 9.3
Otolaryngology† 213 4.1 261 5.2
Urology‡ 261 5.0 223 4.4
Plastic surgery§ 207 4.0 211 4.2
Neurological surgery† 152 2.9 144 2.9
Total  5,175 100 5,027 100

* Core Surgical Specialties offer primary certification by an American Board of Medical Specialties board.
† One prerequisite year of graduate medical education is required before entering specialty.
‡ Two years of prerequisite general surgery residency is required before entering urology.
§ A minimum of 3 prerequisite years of general surgery or completion of an otolaryngology residency is required before entering plastic surgery. In 1995, the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) began accrediting programs to offer a 5- to 6-year program in plastic surgery, called the Integrated Educational Model.

From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

Most who enter surgical residency programs are male (73.4% in 1994 and 73.8% in 1995), Caucasian (67.5% in 1994 and 62.3% in 1995), and graduates of US or Canadian allopathic medical schools (89.4% in 1994 and 89.6% in 1995). Twenty-seven percent are women, 16% are Asian, 5% are African American or Native American, and approximately 4% are from Hispanic backgrounds (Tables 6 and 7). Approximately 9% of entering residents are graduates of international medical schools (IMG), and 1.2 to 1.3% are graduates of US osteopathic medical schools. Graduates of surgical residency programs are even more homogenous: 77% of graduates in 1995 and 75.6% in 1996 are male; 77.5% in 1995 and 78.2% in 1996 are Caucasian. Only 6% of graduates in both 1995 and 1996 are IMGs and 1% are osteopathic graduates (Tables 8 and 9).

Table 6. Surgical Residents Beginning a Residency Program, 1994-1995 and 1995-1996: Gender, Ethnic Background, and Medical School Attended


  Residents
 
  1994-1995 1995-1996
 

Characteristic n % n %

Gender
   Male 4,069 73.4 3,982 73.8
   Female 1,472 26.6 1,415 26.2
Ethnic background
   Caucasian 3,738 67.5 3,364 62.3
   Asian* 910 16.4 865 16.0
   African-Ameican and
   Native American
301 5.4 305 5.7
   Hispanic† 218 3.9 226 4.2
   Other/unknown 374 6.7 637 11.8
Medical school attended        
   US/Canadian allopathic 4,955 89.4 4,837 89.6
   US osteopathic 69 1.2 70 1.3
   International medical graduate 492 8.9 481 8.9
   Unknown medical school 25 0.5 9 0.2
Total residents 5,541 100 5,397 100

* Asian, Pacific Islander, Indian, Middle Eastern (1995).
† Mexican American, Puerto Rican, or other Hispanic.

From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

Table 8. 1995 and 1996 Graduates of Surgical Residencies: Gender, Ethnic Background, and Medical School Attended


  Graduates
 
  1995 1996
 

Characteristic n % n %

Gender
   Male 3,530 77.0 3,418 75.6
   Female 1,057 23.0 1,105 24.4
Ethnic background
   Caucasian 3,553 77.5 3,537 78.2
   Asian* 497 10.4 432 9.6
   African-Ameican and
   Native American
218 4.8 213 4.7
   Hispanic† 193 4.2 202 4.5
   Other/unknown 144 3.1 139 3.1
Medical school attended        
   US/Canadian allopathic 4,276 93.2 4,165 92.1
   US osteopathic 55 1.2 60 1.3
   International medical graduate 253 5.5 298 6.6
   Unknown medical school 3 0.1 0  
Total graduates 4,587 100 4,523 100


* Asian, Pacific Islander, Indian, Middle Eastern (1995).
† Mexican American, Puerto Rican, or other Hispanic.

From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.

The predominant ethnic minority group represented in surgical GME is Asian (10% of graduates). African-American and Hispanic individuals make up 5% and 4% of graduates from surgical residency programs, respectively, in both the 1995 and 1996 graduating classes (Tables 7 and 9 and Fig. 2).

Figure 2

Figure 2. Ethnic backgrounds of graduates of all surgical residency programs in 1996. (From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1995-1996 American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.)

Women make up 27% of entering residents and 23% to 24% of graduates of surgical GME programs (Tables 6 and 8). Most women are registered in obstetrics and gynecology residency programs where they represent the majority of the entering class (59% in 1994 and 60% in 1995) and of graduates (53% in 1995 and 55% in 1996). In all other surgical specialties combined, women made up 17% of the entering class in 1994 and 16% in 1995; in 1995, 13% of graduates from surgical specialties other than obstetrics and gynecology were women and in 1996 this number was 14%. Women represented 19% of entering general surgical residents in 1994 and 1995, and 15% and 16% of general surgery graduates in 1995 and 1996, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Strict adherence to finite resource and quality based criteria4 for allocation of positions in surgical residency programs has resulted in essentially no increase in the number of programs or output of surgical specialists into the physician workforce of the US during the past 15 years. Several studies by individual surgical specialties5-7 have documented that the number of new graduates from residency programs in the specialty approximates the number of surgeons leaving practice through death and retirement. The number of surgical specialists needed is more difficult to determine, but is usually calculated based on the minimum utilization of surgeons in the specialty by managed care organizations.8-12 These calculations have concluded that surgeons are in oversupply; other, more comprehensive measures of the specialist physician workforce have come to different conclusions.13-15 It is clear, however, from data presented in the annual reports of the Longitudinal Study of Surgical Residents that surgeons are not being produced at an increasing rate as has occurred in a number of nonsurgical specialties and subspecialties.16-18

The trend toward further specialization after completion of a general surgery residency continues. The number of general surgery graduates who chose to enter plastic surgery dropped from 130 for the 1995 graduates to 87 for the 1996 graduates. While needing a longer period of observation to include those who resume GME after a delay of 1 to 2 years, this may be a trend that will require close observation. As plastic surgery programs evolve to an integrated mode, wherein graduating medical students match directly to plastic surgery as a PGY 1 or enter plastic surgery after 3 or 4 years of general surgery residency rather than the full 5 years, the long-established pattern of becoming fully trained in general surgery before entering plastic surgery may become a thing of the past.19 This would have important implications for general surgery programs, which now expect that at least 10% of their graduates will never practice general surgery but will enter plastic surgery. If the same number of categorical general surgery residents are appointed, 100 to 130 new general surgeons will be added to the general surgery workforce each year. Residency programs that are associated with integrated plastic surgery programs or programs taking residents into plastic surgery after 3 or 4 years should be aware of this issue.

Graduates of core surgical specialties are, on average, 33 years old. Women are significantly younger than men at graduation, averaging 32.7 to 32.8 years of age compared to 33.1 to 33.2 years for men. IMG graduates of core programs are substantially older, averaging 36.5 to 36.7 years of age. Graduates of advanced surgical programs are 2 to 3 years older and first enter the workforce at 35 to 38 years of age. Compared with the average age of 28 for new lawyers, for example, surgeons have trained far longer than other professionals.20 This also has implications for the total years each surgeon is expected to practice; with the average retirement age of surgeons near 63 years, a surgeon will practice for approximately 25 to 30 years.

Having accounted for the "designated" preliminary residents entering general surgery as a PGY 1 before beginning specialty residency education, we found an excess of about 1,000 general surgery PGY 1 residents in 1994-95 and 1995-96. These are "undesignated" preliminary residents who have no guarantee of an advanced residency position in a surgical specialty. In a separate study21 we have found that 19% of these individuals fail to continue in any type of GME program. Their fate and their practice patterns are not known but may be of concern if, in fact, they are practicing medicine or surgery in the US with little graduate education. Only half of the IMGs who begin a surgical residency program will graduate. In 1994 and 1995, the entering cohort of IMGs was approximately 500; only 250 to 300 IMGs graduated during those years. We suspect that many IMGs who fail to complete surgical GME may be in the undesignated preliminary general surgery resident category (Fig. 3).

Figure 3

Figure 3. International medical graduates (IMG) entering and graduating from surgical residency programs in 1996. PGY1, postgraduate year 1. (From the American College of Surgeons Surgical Resident Masterfile and the Medical Education Research and Information Database, 1995-1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, with permission.)

These data demonstrate a lack of diversity, gender or ethnic, in the entering or graduating surgical resident complement.22 This should be of concern to the profession of surgery for 2 reasons. First, there is evidence that the African-American, Native American, and Hispanic populations in the US are better served by physicians who are aware of and sensitive to cultural and language differences.23 Second, the profession of surgery has taken great pride in recruitment of "the best and the brightest" graduates of US and Canadian medical schools. As the proportion of women in medical school graduating classes increases (from 38% in 1994 to more than 40% in 1998), it will be important to actively recruit from this large group of qualified medical school graduates. There are further threats to the applicant pool; aggressive recruitment of US medical school graduates into primary care residency programs has been successful, and nearly half of current US graduates now enter primary care residency programs. In 1994, 5,826 US graduates entered primary care and in 1998, 6,780 matched to internal medicine, pediatrics, and family practice, a loss of nearly 1,000 US graduates from the potential pool of surgical applicants during this 5-year period (Fig. 4). If surgery fails to actively recruit from all US graduates, the applicant pool will be diminished in both quantity and quality.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Trend in graduates of US medical schools who match to a postgraduate year 1 (PGY 1) position in internal medicine, pediatrics, and family practice through the National Resident Matching Program from 1994-1996. (From the 1998 NRMP Data Book, National Resident Matching Program, Washington, DC, with permission.)

Although recruitment of the most highly qualified US and Canadian medical school graduates into surgery has been a source of pride to the profession for many years, steps should be taken now to ensure that the entire qualified pool of applicants for surgery is used and that successful recruitment continues in parallel with the changing demographics of medical school enrollment and the nation's population.

References

1. Longitudinal Study of Surgical Residents: 1992-1993. Chicago: Education & Surgical Services Department, American College of Surgeons, 1994.

2. Kwakwa F, Jonasson O. The longitudinal study of surgical residents, 1993-1994. J Am Coll Surg 1996; 183:425-433.

3. Medical Education Research and Information Database, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998.

4. Graduate Medical Education Directory, 1994-1995,1995-1996, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, 1994,1995.

5. McCullough DL. Manpower needs in urology in the twenty-first century. Urol Clin North Am 1998;25:15-22.

6. Jonasson O, Kwakwa E Retirement age and the work force in general surgery. Ann Sur 1996;224:574-582.

7. Jonasson O, Kwakwa F, Sleldon GE Calculating the workforce in general surgery. JAMA 1995;274:731-734.

8. Steinwachs DM, Weiner JPI Shapiro S, et al. A comparison of the requirements for primary care physicians in HMOs with projections made by GMENAC. N Engl J Med 1986;314:217-222.

9. Cohen JJ. Transforming the size and composition of the physician work force to meet the demands of health care reform. N Engl J Med 1993;329:1810-1812.

10. Simon CJ, Dranove D, White WD. The impact of managed care on the physician marketplace. Public Health Rep 1997;l 12: 222-230.

11. McClendon BJ, Politzer RM, Christian E, Fernandez ES. Downsizing the physician workforce. Public Health Rep 1997; 112: 231-239.

12. Kronick R, Goodman DC, WennbergjE, Wagner E. The marketplace in health care reform: the demographic limitations of managed competition. N Engl J Med 1993;328:148-152.

13. Cooper RA. Seeking a balanced physician workforce for the 21 st century. JAMA 1994;272:680-687.

14. Fed EC, Welch HG, Fisher ES. Why estimates of physician supply and requirements disagree. JAMA 1993;269:2659-2663.

15. Hart LG, Wagner E, Pirzada S, et al. Physician staffing ratios in staff-model HMOs: a cautionary tale. Health Aff 1997;16:55-70.

16. David J, Mogilner A, Ozick LA. Unemployment and underemployment in 1996 graduates of New York City gastroenterology training programs. Am J Gastroenterol 1998;93:1211-1216.

17. Crewson PE, Sunshine JH, Chepps B. The situation of diagnostic radiology training programs and their graduates in 1997. Am J Roentgenol 1998;171:919-922.

18. Sheldon GF, Kagarise MJ. The health work force, generalism, and the social contract. Ann Surg 1995;222:215-228.

19. Luce EA. General surgery; the general surgical subspecialties, and prerequisite training. Arch Surg 1993; 128:134-137.

20. Personal communication with Judith Collins, Director of Research, National Association for Law Placement, Washington, DC, 1996. Data taken from the Employment Report and Salary Survey, 1994.

21. Kwakwa E, Jonasson O. Attrition in surgical residents: an analysis of the 1993 entering cohort. Unpublished data.

22. Libby DL, Zhou. Z, Kindig DA. Will minority physician supply meet U.S. needs? Health Aff 1997;116:205-214.

23. Burrow GN. Medical student diversity-elective or required? [editorial] Acad Med 1998;73:1052-1053.

No competing interests declared.

Received December 2, 1998; Revised January 26, 1999; Accepted February 15, 1999.
From the American College of Surgeons, Chicago, IL.
Correspondence address: Francis Kwakwa, American College of Surgeons, 633 N St Clair St, Chicago, IL 60611.

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